Russia’s use of ambiguity may be becoming as important as the drones themselves. In a recent The Times analysis on drone incursions into NATO airspace, PhL Managing partner Martins Vargulis contributed his assessment of how such incidents can test air-defence responses, command-and-control procedures and political decision-making, while creating uncertainty over attribution.

The broader challenge is not only technological. Effective defence depends on how quickly information from different sensors, authorities and NATO structures can be combined into a common picture, and how confidently governments can respond when the origin and intent of an incident remain unclear.

Martins also highlighted perhaps the most serious risk: miscalculation. A drone hitting critical infrastructure or causing civilian casualties could create immediate political pressure to act before responsibility has been conclusively established.

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